Mathematical Modelling · Nigeria

Investigating the Human Cost of Declining Donor Support for HIV and TB Care

RSTMH

Grant-funded research

Nigeria

Primary study setting

HIV and TB donor funding cuts — impact research in Nigeria by Evidence for Good

We are pleased to announce that the Evidence for Good Research Director has been awarded a grant from the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (RSTMH). This funding will support a critical project aimed at examining the real-world impacts of declining international donor support on the most vulnerable populations living with HIV and TB in Nigeria.

Why This Matters Now

For decades, international aid has served as a lifeline for millions of people affected by HIV, TB, and other tropical diseases. However, as international funding dwindles, evidenced by recent disruptions to more than 80 "One-Stop Shops" for HIV care in Nigeria alone, the safety net is rapidly falling apart.

This project goes beyond statistics to capture lived realities. For women, children, and marginalised groups, funding cuts often mean impossible choices between buying food or buying medicines, staying home sick or risking job loss, and enduring illness in silence or facing stigma through disclosure. These underexplored consequences risk compounding poverty, deepening inequality, and reinforcing systemic neglect, underscoring the urgent need for evidence-based, actionable solutions.

Our Goal

We are stepping in to quantitatively measure the impact on physical health, mental well-being, and financial security. By combining community-based surveys with advanced mathematical modelling, we aim to quantify what is truly at stake and the real cost of inaction. The resulting evidence will be critical to:

1

Inform national health financing reforms and prioritise the most vulnerable populations.

2

Strengthen the case for increased investment by local governments and philanthropies.

3

Support a shift from reliance on volatile international aid toward resilient, self-sustaining health systems across Africa and other resource-constrained settings.